Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #2
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.6%
Top 5 at State Finals 98.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 120 169 148 372 170 155 148 125 135 100
Team Adjusted Rating 146 148 120 124 155 148 125 135 100
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
3  Abby Green 10 18:09 17:55 17:58 18:06 18:43 18:17 18:17 18:01
10  Meagan Hathaway 10 18:30 18:39 18:36 18:30 18:44 18:53 18:38 18:41 18:22
35  Leah Metzger 11 19:00 19:12 19:22 19:13 19:19 19:15 19:07 19:14 18:52
44  Maggie Falater 11 19:06 19:41 19:27 19:14 19:30 19:15 19:12 19:23 18:58
115  Emily Ryan 12 19:49 21:05 19:53 20:29 20:04 20:16 19:40
147  Mallory Clements 9 19:58 20:30 20:13 20:21 19:42 20:07 19:51 19:43 19:46 20:05
150  Allison Thomas 12 19:59 19:57 20:10 20:07 20:10 19:54 19:41 26:03
188  Rayna Fruchey 9 20:14 20:30 19:56 20:50 19:48 20:00 20:16 20:24
292  Kathleen Ellingson 10 20:38 20:39 20:26 20:46 20:44
304  Elizabeth Lohman 12 20:39 20:24 20:35 20:50 20:36 20:42
334  Courtney Brown 9 20:44 20:44 20:59 20:27 20:44
454  Elizabeth LaLonde 9 21:11 20:23 21:35 21:30
544  Kiana Thurber 9 21:30 21:47 20:25 22:00
611  Jadynn Kable 10 21:41 21:47 21:18 22:14 21:38
700  Maya Wilkins 9 21:56 21:49 22:01 22:06 21:54
703  Hannah Loeffler 10 21:57 21:25 21:51 22:55 21:55
1,014  Raegan Tippey 9 22:39 22:33 22:30 22:14 23:33
1,211  Molly Duffner 10 23:05 23:04
1,413  Clara Lietzke 10 23:30 23:23 23:05 24:02 23:37
Allison Jones 10 23:34 22:37 22:56 24:30 24:06
Madeline Gerig 9 23:47 23:18 24:10
Georgia Givens 10 23:50 22:43 24:20 25:02 23:27
Zoe Davis 10 24:02 23:00 24:46




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 2.5 138 0.6 64.2 23.8 8.1 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.2 52 82.7 17.1 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.2 39 83.3 16.8
Sectionals 100% 1.2 31 83.8 16.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Abby Green 100% 3.6 8.4 16.2 17.4 13.1 9.8 8.1 5.8 4.5 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 11.2 0.2 1.1 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.1 6.3 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 100.0%
Leah Metzger 100% 34.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 2.5 2.1 99.2%
Maggie Falater 100% 42.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 97.5%
Emily Ryan 100% 103.9 26.4%
Mallory Clements 100% 117.8 11.9%
Allison Thomas 100% 118.8 11.4%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Abby Green 100% 1.6 16.5 54.5 15.3 7.7 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 4.0 0.7 5.0 26.4 18.4 16.4 13.4 9.4 5.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Leah Metzger 100% 9.7 0.1 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.8 10.6 13.0 13.3 12.6 10.2 7.1 5.3 3.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Maggie Falater 100% 11.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.9 4.1 7.0 9.1 12.0 12.8 11.9 9.7 7.4 5.7 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Emily Ryan 100% 30.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.4 99.9%
Mallory Clements 100% 37.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 99.8%
Allison Thomas 100% 37.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 99.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Abby Green 100% 1.6 15.6 56.8 15.8 7.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Meagan Hathaway 100% 3.7 0.5 5.3 29.5 20.6 19.3 17.9 5.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Leah Metzger 100% 7.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 8.6 21.8 24.5 18.1 10.0 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maggie Falater 100% 8.5 0.0 0.7 1.8 4.1 11.9 20.8 22.5 16.5 8.9 4.9 3.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Emily Ryan 100% 18.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 4.1 4.7 5.6 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.6 8.4 7.7 6.6 4.3 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 21.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 4.2 4.2 5.5 5.3 6.3 7.7 9.1 10.0 10.8 11.0 100.0%
Allison Thomas 100% 22.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.6 6.2 7.6 8.8 9.8 11.3 10.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Abby Green 1.0 76.4 14.8 7.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Meagan Hathaway 2.3 4.9 39.0 20.7 27.2 6.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Leah Metzger 5.5 0.3 4.0 7.0 24.3 27.0 19.7 10.3 4.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Maggie Falater 6.4 0.1 1.3 3.6 11.7 22.9 25.9 18.6 8.4 3.6 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Emily Ryan 14.0 0.3 1.7 5.2 7.9 8.5 8.6 8.9 8.5 10.2 9.8 10.2 9.1 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mallory Clements 16.6 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.1 5.7 6.8 7.3 9.7 11.3 13.4 13.8 11.8 3.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2
Allison Thomas 16.8 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.5 4.6 5.8 6.3 7.9 9.0 11.0 13.1 14.8 12.5 4.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2